India is set to experience extreme heat during the April to June period, with the central and western peninsular parts expected to face the worst impact, the IMD said on Monday as the country prepares for seven-phase general elections from April 19.
El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
There is a substantial possibility of the emergence of La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, which invariably has a positive influence on the monsoon.
After a stellar run on the bourses that saw tractor stocks rise up to 52 per cent, analysts are turning cautious on the sector as muted demand trends may weigh in the near-term. Total volumes in the tractor segment for the last three quarters of the current financial year (9MFY24) have remained weak with VST Tillers, Escorts Kubota, and M&M seeing declines of 21 per cent, 5 per cent, and 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), respectively, during the period, amid patchy rainfall, delayed crop harvest, and lower reservoir level. Across industry, total domestic sales volume so far in the current financial year (April '23 to January '24) has declined 5 per cent Y-o-Y, as per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA).
Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar said the borewell in his house in Sadashivanagar in the state capital has gone dry for the first time. This happened despite the fact that Sadashivanagar is located next to Sankey Lake.
'The first two months of monsoon are not looking good.' 'In case both the halves fail, it is going to be misery.'
For the second successive year, Monsoon is likely to be below normal with parts of north-west and central India to be the most affected.
With the monsoon set to start in the country this week, the Meteorological Department has placed the odds of El Nino -- which can affect wind patterns and trigger both floods and sharply reduced rains -- at 60 per cent.
Pre-monsoon rainfall, colloquial referred to as "mango showers", is vital to many parts of the country.
The seasonal temperature would be above normal by more than one degree Celsius over Northwest India.
The five warmest years in Indian weather history have occurred in the past 14 years -- the others being 2009, 2017 and 2010, in order of intensity.
The exercise, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said, will help ease any possible impact of sub-par rainfall on farmers.
The IMD chief also allayed fears of occurrence of an El-Nino.
Deficient rains can shave 50-80 basis points off gross domestic product and hurt consumption.
The UK body's forecast comes after the UN agency World Meteorological Organisation warned that there is more than 50 per cent chance of El Nino happening this year. El Nino is caused by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean and its impact would cause droughts and floods.
After El Nino and droughts hit pepper in Vietnam, causing a production drop of around 20%, Indian market is hoping that the global supply position will remain tight this year.
According to the global financial services major, inflation may remain sticky, with a possible El Nino effect on the monsoon likely to push up food prices and geopolitical uncertainties seen pumping up global commodity rates.
Monsoon is likely to be 96 per cent of the long period average
Globally averaged temperatures in 2017 were 0.90 degree Celsius warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. That is second only to global temperatures in 2016.
With temperatures remaining above normal since November, this winter could well be the warmest ever recorded not only in North India, but across the country.
The warmest six years have all been since 2015, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 being the top three. The differences in average global temperatures among the three warmest years are indistinguishably small. The average global temperature in 2020 was about 14.9C, 1.2 ( 0.1) C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) level.
India will receive normal monsoon this season, country's meteorological department said on Wednesday in its forecast for the Southwest monsoon that covers 75 per cent of the country, and thereby may bring much-needed respite to the economy, which is reeling under the catastrophic effect of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Heatwave conditions are expected over northwest India during the next five days, with Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi predicted to bear the maximum impact, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.
"The season averaged maximum temperatures in Himachal Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to be higher than normal by 0.5-1.0 degree Celsius," the Met department has said in its forecast.
Renewed inflationary pressures, led by a spike in prices of vegetables and cereals, have cast a spell on the equity markets in the past month. The BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have declined up to 2 per cent each during the period, clipping the 13 per cent rally from the March lows, shows data from ACE Equity. Investors typically consider shares of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies as defensive bets, putting their weight behind them in a falling market.
'In case the El Nino pattern plays out negatively and/or the political situation becomes messy, we may see markets correcting and waiting for the situation to become clear by early/mid-2024.'
'Because of global warming, the chances of heatwaves like this are much higher.'
India experienced its second-hottest quarter from June to August this year since 1970, with over one-third of the country's population enduring at least seven days of dangerous heat, according to a new report by a United States-based group of climate scientists and communicators.
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the inflation forecast for 2023-24 at 5.4 per cent, and vowed to take timely measures to prevent any spillovers of global food and fuel price shocks. Stressing that the Reserve Bank has identified high inflation as a major risk to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth, Governor Shaktikanta Das said the September retail inflation number may be lower than August and July prints. The headline inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated to 4.6 per cent in first quarter of 2023-24 as compared to 7.3 per cent in the same period a year ago.
The heat wave is likely to impact parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal, the Met office said.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday marginally lowered its inflation projection for the current financial year to 5.1 per cent, as Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank's monetary policy actions are yielding the desired results. In April, the Reserve Bank had estimated the consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation at 5.2 per cent during the fiscal 2023-24. CPI inflation fell sharply to 4.7 per cent in April 2023, from 6.4 per cent in February, on the back of favourable base effects, with softening observed across all the three major groups.
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
Here's a map showing the monsoon situation across the country.
Here's a map showing the monsoon situation across the country.
The record temperatures in May were accompanied by other extreme events, including very heavy precipitation in parts of Europe and the southern US, and widespread and severe coral reef bleaching.
Markets ended lower with private banking majors and index heavyweights ITC and RIL leading the decline.
Should Modi win the elections, his government will face its first credibility test with markets when he delivers a budget.
'The last time we had such a late withdrawal of monsoon was in 1960 or so.'
All parts except Northeast may get below-normal rain; govt reiterates assurance on preparations.
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